ADM

VALUE TRAP?

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Consumer Defensive · Rank #143 · Analyzed Oct 18, 2026

$82.61

Current Price

$170.21

Intrinsic Value

+106.0%

Upside/Downside

3.5/10

Score

1/5

Quality

Analysis Summary

Valuation Consensus1/3 methods agree

Quality Score1/5.0

Framework RatingVALUE TRAP?

Price vs Intrinsic ValueUndervalued by 106.0%

Fair Value Range

Low$27.03

Base (IV)$170.21

High$238.94

Entry Points

Conservative$18.92

Moderate$27.03

Aggressive$119.15

⚠️ Warnings

Cheap (+106%) but low quality (1.0/5) — possible value trap; cheapness may be deserved

Quality & Moat Breakdown

Return on Equity7.6% → 0/1.0

Debt LevelD/E 39 → 0.5/1.0

Revenue QualityGrowth -5.7%, margin Δ-0.6% +recovery → 0.5/1.0

Moat Strength0.5/5 → 0/1.0

Profit Margins2.2% → 0/1.0

Methodology

This analysis uses a unified valuation framework combining three methods, Discounted Cash Flow (3-scenario), Earnings Power Value, and Asset Valuation, with a quality scoring overlay. A stock needs 2/3 valuation methods to agree and a quality score ≥ 3.5/5 for a BUY rating.

Learn how this framework works →

This is a personal analysis tool, not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.