CF

HOLD

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Basic Materials · Rank #14 · Analyzed Oct 18, 2026

$120.85

Current Price

$218.26

Intrinsic Value

+80.6%

Upside/Downside

7.4/10

Score

2.5/5

Quality

Analysis Summary

Valuation Consensus2/3 methods agree

Quality Score2.5/5.0

Framework RatingHOLD

Price vs Intrinsic ValueUndervalued by 80.6%

Fair Value Range

Low$25.42

Base (IV)$218.26

High$260.28

Entry Points

Conservative$17.79

Moderate$25.42

Aggressive$152.78

Quality & Moat Breakdown

Return on Equity29.9% → 1.0/1.0

Debt LevelD/E 41 → 0.5/1.0

Revenue QualityGrowth 12.4%, margin Δ+9.5% → 1.0/1.0

Moat Strength4.5/5 → 1.0/1.0

Profit Margins27.1% → 1.0/1.0

commodity_capcapped 4.5→2.5 (price-taker, no durable moat)

Methodology

This analysis uses a unified valuation framework combining three methods, Discounted Cash Flow (3-scenario), Earnings Power Value, and Asset Valuation, with a quality scoring overlay. A stock needs 2/3 valuation methods to agree and a quality score ≥ 3.5/5 for a BUY rating.

Learn how this framework works →

This is a personal analysis tool, not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.