CMG

SELL

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Rank #319 · Analyzed Oct 18, 2026

$29.89

Current Price

$12.68

Intrinsic Value

-57.6%

Upside/Downside

2/10

Score

2/5

Quality

Analysis Summary

Valuation Consensus0/3 methods agree

Quality Score2/5.0

Framework RatingSELL

Price vs Intrinsic ValueOvervalued by 57.6%

Fair Value Range

Low$1.78

Base (IV)$12.68

High$15.50

Entry Points

Conservative$1.24

Moderate$1.78

Aggressive$8.88

Quality & Moat Breakdown

Return on Equity49.6% → 1.0/1.0

Debt LevelD/E 246 → 0/1.0

Revenue QualityGrowth 7.3%, margin Δ-2.4% → 0.5/1.0

Moat Strength2.0/5 → 0/1.0

Profit Margins11.4% → 0.5/1.0

Methodology

This analysis uses a unified valuation framework combining three methods, Discounted Cash Flow (3-scenario), Earnings Power Value, and Asset Valuation, with a quality scoring overlay. A stock needs 2/3 valuation methods to agree and a quality score ≥ 3.5/5 for a BUY rating.

Learn how this framework works →

This is a personal analysis tool, not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.