CMG

SELL

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Rank #207 · Analyzed Apr 20, 2026

$35.83

Current Price

$10.45

Intrinsic Value

-65.7%

Upside/Downside

2.5/10

Score

2.5/5

Quality

Analysis Summary

Valuation Consensus0/3 methods agree

Quality Score2.5/5.0

Framework RatingSELL

Price vs Intrinsic ValueOvervalued by 65.7%

Fair Value Range

Low$1.74

Base (IV)$10.45

High$12.27

Entry Points

Conservative$1.74

Moderate$6.10

Aggressive$10.45

Quality & Moat Breakdown

Return on Equity47.4% → 1.0/1.0

Debt LevelD/E 179 → 0/1.0

Revenue QualityGrowth 7.3%, margin Δ-2.4% → 0.5/1.0

Moat Strength2.5/5 → 0.5/1.0

Profit Margins12.9% → 0.5/1.0

Methodology

This analysis uses a unified valuation framework combining three methods — Discounted Cash Flow (3-scenario), Earnings Power Value, and Asset Valuation — with a quality scoring overlay. A stock needs 2/3 valuation methods to agree and a quality score ≥ 3.5/5 for a BUY rating.

Learn how this framework works →

This is a personal analysis tool, not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.