HRL

VALUE TRAP?

Hormel Foods Corporation

Consumer Defensive · Rank #132 · Analyzed Oct 18, 2026

$20.40

Current Price

$33.01

Intrinsic Value

+61.8%

Upside/Downside

3.5/10

Score

1.5/5

Quality

Analysis Summary

Valuation Consensus2/3 methods agree

Quality Score1.5/5.0

Framework RatingVALUE TRAP?

Price vs Intrinsic ValueUndervalued by 61.8%

Fair Value Range

Low$1.95

Base (IV)$33.01

High$39.91

Entry Points

Conservative$1.37

Moderate$1.95

Aggressive$23.11

⚠️ Warnings

Cheap (+62%) but low quality (1.5/5) — possible value trap; cheapness may be deserved

Quality & Moat Breakdown

Return on Equity4.3% → 0/1.0

Debt LevelD/E 36 → 0.5/1.0

Revenue QualityGrowth 3.2%, margin Δ-1.9% +recovery → 1.0/1.0

Moat Strength1.0/5 → 0/1.0

Profit Margins2.8% → 0/1.0

Methodology

This analysis uses a unified valuation framework combining three methods, Discounted Cash Flow (3-scenario), Earnings Power Value, and Asset Valuation, with a quality scoring overlay. A stock needs 2/3 valuation methods to agree and a quality score ≥ 3.5/5 for a BUY rating.

Learn how this framework works →

This is a personal analysis tool, not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.