MOS

VALUE TRAP?

Mosaic Company (The)

Basic Materials · Rank #175 · Analyzed Jul 13, 2026

$21.51

Current Price

$36.87

Intrinsic Value

+71.4%

Upside/Downside

3.5/10

Score

1.5/5

Quality

Analysis Summary

Valuation Consensus2/2 methods agree

Quality Score1.5/5.0

Framework RatingVALUE TRAP?

Price vs Intrinsic ValueUndervalued by 71.4%

Fair Value Range

Low$28.26

Base (IV)$36.87

High$45.47

Entry Points

Conservative$19.78

Moderate$28.26

Aggressive$25.81

⚠️ Warnings

Cheap (+71%) but low quality (1.5/5) — possible value trap; cheapness may be deserved

Quality & Moat Breakdown

Return on Equity0.6% → 0/1.0

Debt LevelD/E 48 → 0.5/1.0

Revenue QualityGrowth 5.6%, margin Δ+3.0% +recovery → 1.0/1.0

Moat Strength1.0/5 → 0/1.0

Profit Margins0.4% → 0/1.0

Methodology

This analysis uses a unified valuation framework combining three methods, Discounted Cash Flow (3-scenario), Earnings Power Value, and Asset Valuation, with a quality scoring overlay. A stock needs 2/3 valuation methods to agree and a quality score ≥ 3.5/5 for a BUY rating.

Learn how this framework works →

This is a personal analysis tool, not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.