NOC

VALUE TRAP?

Northrop Grumman Corporation

Industrials · Rank #163 · Analyzed Jul 13, 2026

$539.63

Current Price

$1218.41

Intrinsic Value

+125.8%

Upside/Downside

3.5/10

Score

2/5

Quality

Analysis Summary

Valuation Consensus1/2 methods agree

Quality Score2/5.0

Framework RatingVALUE TRAP?

Price vs Intrinsic ValueUndervalued by 125.8%

Fair Value Range

Low$538.89

Base (IV)$1218.41

High$1737.42

Entry Points

Conservative$377.22

Moderate$538.89

Aggressive$852.89

⚠️ Warnings

Cheap (+126%) but low quality (2.0/5) — possible value trap; cheapness may be deserved

Quality & Moat Breakdown

Return on Equity28.5% → 1.0/1.0

Debt LevelD/E 103 → 0/1.0

Revenue QualityGrowth 3.0%, margin Δ-0.9% → 0.5/1.0

Moat Strength1.5/5 → 0/1.0

Profit Margins10.8% → 0.5/1.0

Methodology

This analysis uses a unified valuation framework combining three methods, Discounted Cash Flow (3-scenario), Earnings Power Value, and Asset Valuation, with a quality scoring overlay. A stock needs 2/3 valuation methods to agree and a quality score ≥ 3.5/5 for a BUY rating.

Learn how this framework works →

This is a personal analysis tool, not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.