NOC

VALUE TRAP?

Northrop Grumman Corporation

Industrials · Rank #188 · Analyzed Oct 18, 2026

$519.86

Current Price

$684.59

Intrinsic Value

+31.7%

Upside/Downside

3.5/10

Score

2/5

Quality

Analysis Summary

Valuation Consensus2/2 methods agree

Quality Score2/5.0

Framework RatingVALUE TRAP?

Price vs Intrinsic ValueUndervalued by 31.7%

Fair Value Range

Low$538.77

Base (IV)$684.59

High$837.42

Entry Points

Conservative$377.14

Moderate$538.77

Aggressive$479.21

⚠️ Warnings

Cheap (+32%) but low quality (2.0/5) — possible value trap; cheapness may be deserved

Quality & Moat Breakdown

Return on Equity27.0% → 1.0/1.0

Debt LevelD/E 95 → 0/1.0

Revenue QualityGrowth 3.0%, margin Δ-0.9% → 0.5/1.0

Moat Strength2.0/5 → 0/1.0

Profit Margins10.5% → 0.5/1.0

Methodology

This analysis uses a unified valuation framework combining three methods, Discounted Cash Flow (3-scenario), Earnings Power Value, and Asset Valuation, with a quality scoring overlay. A stock needs 2/3 valuation methods to agree and a quality score ≥ 3.5/5 for a BUY rating.

Learn how this framework works →

This is a personal analysis tool, not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.