XOM

VALUE TRAP?

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation

Energy · Rank #172 · Analyzed Jul 13, 2026

$138.88

Current Price

$195.27

Intrinsic Value

+40.6%

Upside/Downside

3.5/10

Score

1.5/5

Quality

Analysis Summary

Valuation Consensus2/3 methods agree

Quality Score1.5/5.0

Framework RatingVALUE TRAP?

Price vs Intrinsic ValueUndervalued by 40.6%

Fair Value Range

Low$51.46

Base (IV)$195.27

High$234.95

Entry Points

Conservative$36.02

Moderate$51.46

Aggressive$136.69

⚠️ Warnings

Cheap (+41%) but low quality (1.5/5) — possible value trap; cheapness may be deserved

Quality & Moat Breakdown

Return on Equity9.9% → 0/1.0

Debt LevelD/E 18 → 1.0/1.0

Revenue QualityGrowth -3.7%, margin Δ-1.0% +recovery → 0.5/1.0

Moat Strength0.0/5 → 0/1.0

Profit Margins7.8% → 0/1.0

Methodology

This analysis uses a unified valuation framework combining three methods, Discounted Cash Flow (3-scenario), Earnings Power Value, and Asset Valuation, with a quality scoring overlay. A stock needs 2/3 valuation methods to agree and a quality score ≥ 3.5/5 for a BUY rating.

Learn how this framework works →

This is a personal analysis tool, not financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.